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INTERVIEW

Complex World,
simple decisions?

Noreena Hertz is a bestselling author, academic and thinker whose economic predictions over the past 15 years
have proven to be visionary. The Observer has named her “one of the world’s leading thinkers” and the Guardian
has identified her as “one of the top British Public Intellectuals”. Here she talks to Notenstein, a leading Swiss Private
Bank about our increasingly complex world.

The flood of information Hertz, what are - in your view - the most the cap on the franc back in January or the
and rapid pace of change important global trends that contribute to Chinese government’s recent decision to
make it even more difficult this increasing complexity? severely restrict trading in shares or Alex
to take the right decisions. Tsipras’s impromptu decision earlier this year
Investors are well advised NOREENA HERTZ: You cite several yourself. to call a referendum in Greece, due process
not to rely solely on experts. Technology is indeed fundamentally and deliberation seem increasingly to be
changing industry after industry, sector after being traded off for firm, fast, unilateral
NOTENSTEIN: It seems as if the world is sector, enabling innovations and creating measures to address local crises, actual
turning faster and faster. What was carved opportunities we could only have dreamt of or looming. This makes both planning and
in stone yesterday may no longer be valid just a few years ago, but also destabilising predicting increasingly challenging.
today: Is the euro still a hard currency? and disrupting incumbents and creating a Read more. n
Is the US still the only superpower? Is the new set of challenges from data privacy to
cold war still over? Is there anything such job displacement to cyber attacks that we Notenstein is a leading Swiss Private Bank,
as privacy in the internet age? Long gone are ill-prepared to deal with. The nature of specialised in investment advisory services and
are the days when such questions could terrorism today - micro-cells and lone wolf wealth management.
be answered with an unambiguous yes. actors - does make predicting and thwarting
Technological progress - digitalisation, big attacks significantly more challenging for Notenstein Dialogue aims to encourage
data, automation, artificial intelligence national security services than the more discussion and exchange on key economic and
-offers great potential but also raises choreographed types of terrorist attacks social issues, and to identify their implications
fears. But uncertainty also rises through of the past. And yes, of course, a world for investors. Every two months, Notenstein’s
geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, the South of increasing interconnectedness is one of experts conduct a dialogue with a leading
China Sea and the Middle East. Globalisation increased vulnerability, whether we’re talking figure from business or academia.
has made our planet a place where a economic crisis contagion or the spread of
relatively minor event in one corner of the Ebola. But there is more to contemplate,
world (such as an Icelandic volcano or a more that contributes to today’s sense
South Asian virus) affects the everyday life of increased complexity and uncertainty.
of people all over the globe. In short, we live First, governments and regulators appear
in an increasingly complex world. Professor increasingly willing to change the rules of
the game without warning. Whether it was
the Swiss National Bank’s decision to scrap

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